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Author Topic: June 8th; the day skynet comes online  (Read 1542 times)

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Offline Malice please

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Re: June 8th; the day skynet comes online
« Reply #30 on: May 18, 2017, 07:16:17 AM »
Conservative manifesto is so far the only one with plans to give less to useless old people. Party for the young...

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Re: June 8th; the day skynet comes online
« Reply #31 on: May 18, 2017, 07:23:11 AM »
Labour do considerably better than JC in polling. Individual MPs in turn do better than the labour party.

It would be funny if it wasn't so tragic. The narrative of momentum (JC fan boy group) is that the public is fed up with Tory lite and want a socialist party. However he is the least popular, then the labour party as a whole, and finally the "Tory lite" MPs that he wants to get rid of.
oh hey look I've become a running joke

Offline Malice please

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Re: June 8th; the day skynet comes online
« Reply #32 on: May 18, 2017, 07:34:13 AM »
Although last general election labour did better than conservative in my new constituency, I believe conservatives have the slightly better, but still low chance to beat SNP.
Perfect storm of JC labour weakness, frustration with the Scottish Neverendum Party, and the scottish conservative leader being well regarded.
Times are messed up.

Would be nice to have an anti-gerontocracy party to protest vote for.

Offline Cozza

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Re: June 8th; the day skynet comes online
« Reply #33 on: May 18, 2017, 07:54:57 AM »
British Labour still linked with the unions?
SAUSAGE!!!!!!! SAUSAGE!!!!!

Offline Cromstar

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Re: June 8th; the day skynet comes online
« Reply #34 on: May 18, 2017, 08:25:49 AM »
The narrative of momentum (JC fan boy group) is that the public is fed up with Tory lite and want a socialist party.

I mean, that is the appropriate narrative of the desires of the people who voted for party leader. The mismatch comes, I assume, because there's a considerable difference between 'people who voted in the party leadership election' and the full pool of 'people who are actually members of the Labour coalition'.
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Offline GF

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Re: June 8th; the day skynet comes online
« Reply #35 on: May 18, 2017, 09:10:03 AM »
The narrative of momentum (JC fan boy group) is that the public is fed up with Tory lite and want a socialist party.

I mean, that is the appropriate narrative of the desires of the people who voted for party leader. The mismatch comes, I assume, because there's a considerable difference between 'people who voted in the party leadership election' and the full pool of 'people who are actually members of the Labour coalition'.
There is a giant mismatch between people who joined the labour party in droves to vote corbyn, and labour voters.


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Offline Cromstar

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Re: June 8th; the day skynet comes online
« Reply #36 on: May 18, 2017, 10:23:30 AM »
The narrative of momentum (JC fan boy group) is that the public is fed up with Tory lite and want a socialist party.

I mean, that is the appropriate narrative of the desires of the people who voted for party leader. The mismatch comes, I assume, because there's a considerable difference between 'people who voted in the party leadership election' and the full pool of 'people who are actually members of the Labour coalition'.
There is a giant mismatch between people who joined the labour party in droves to vote corbyn, and labour voters.

How dare people care about the election of leaders of a party that they are affiliated with. The overwhelming majority of labour voters don't/can't vote in leadership elections. The fact that people joined to vote for him is a pretty clear sign the people who care wanted Corbyn. If the millions of other Labour voters don't care, that's their problem. Corbyn's very obviously loved by the people who can vote, and they are the only ones who count. Labour shot itself in the foot LONG before Corbyn became leader. Try as they might, they can't just pin the whole problem on him.

Offline GF

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Re: June 8th; the day skynet comes online
« Reply #37 on: May 18, 2017, 10:40:14 AM »
How dare people care about the election of leaders of a party that they are affiliated with. The overwhelming majority of labour voters don't/can't vote in leadership elections. The fact that people joined to vote for him is a pretty clear sign the people who care wanted Corbyn. If the millions of other Labour voters don't care, that's their problem. Corbyn's very obviously loved by the people who can vote, and they are the only ones who count. Labour shot itself in the foot LONG before Corbyn became leader. Try as they might, they can't just pin the whole problem on him.

This might be syrup level retarded, until towards the end, which is true, but the part before is a special level of dumb

Offline Cromstar

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Re: June 8th; the day skynet comes online
« Reply #38 on: May 18, 2017, 10:42:45 AM »
How dare people care about the election of leaders of a party that they are affiliated with. The overwhelming majority of labour voters don't/can't vote in leadership elections. The fact that people joined to vote for him is a pretty clear sign the people who care wanted Corbyn. If the millions of other Labour voters don't care, that's their problem. Corbyn's very obviously loved by the people who can vote, and they are the only ones who count. Labour shot itself in the foot LONG before Corbyn became leader. Try as they might, they can't just pin the whole problem on him.

This might be syrup level retarded, until towards the end, which is true, but the part before is a special level of dumb

What, exactly, is dumb about it?

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Re: June 8th; the day skynet comes online
« Reply #39 on: May 18, 2017, 11:13:49 PM »
I've been a labour party member since I was sixteen. Most people like me didn't vote for Corbyn. They changed the rules so you could become a "supporter" for £3 just before the leadership election. Like 300k random commies and malcontents who actively despised the previous Labour leaders joined and voted for Corbyn. It was basically a takeover of the labour party by momentum. And yes, those trots are out of sync with both the general public and labour party supporters in general.

Offline Delyruin

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Re: June 8th; the day skynet comes online
« Reply #40 on: May 19, 2017, 02:42:40 AM »
Can you vote at 16 in the UK?

I shudder to think.

Offline Malice please

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Re: June 8th; the day skynet comes online
« Reply #41 on: May 19, 2017, 05:19:41 AM »
Can you vote at 16 in the UK?

I shudder to think.
Just cos SNP let them vote in that silly referendum, doesn't mean a real country will let them vote in a real election :p

Offline Cromstar

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Re: June 8th; the day skynet comes online
« Reply #42 on: May 19, 2017, 05:46:05 AM »
I've been a labour party member since I was sixteen. Most people like me didn't vote for Corbyn. They changed the rules so you could become a "supporter" for £3 just before the leadership election. Like 300k random commies and malcontents who actively despised the previous Labour leaders joined and voted for Corbyn. It was basically a takeover of the labour party by momentum. And yes, those trots are out of sync with both the general public and labour party supporters in general.

The problem with this argument is that 'labour supporters' is a pool of several million people while 'officially on the party roles' is only a few hundred thousand. These are similar to what, in the US, might be called 'stealth partisans': people who are very much hardcore partisans, but don't directly identify as such. I don't buy that they aren't REAL labour voters just because they weren't on the official roles.

UK has fucking weird party set-up that encourages this behavior in the first place (otherwise party membership for the two largest parties in the UK would be more than half a million people). You are arguing that the millions of people who are, in fact, labour partisans who decided to officially join the party to influence are somehow less worthy of a vote than you. And that's fucking bullshit. I'm not accepting that argument, no matter how much you make it: its the same as people in the American Republican Party who claim that if you don't hold their religious beliefs, you shouldn't be in the party. Its snobbery and elitism and nothing more.

Online Damon Killian (Jason)

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Re: June 8th; the day skynet comes online
« Reply #43 on: May 19, 2017, 06:28:40 AM »
Can you vote at 16 in the UK?

I shudder to think.
Calling it now: 16 years olds would be more responsible voters than 76 year olds.
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Re: June 8th; the day skynet comes online
« Reply #44 on: May 19, 2017, 11:48:53 AM »
I've been a labour party member since I was sixteen. Most people like me didn't vote for Corbyn. They changed the rules so you could become a "supporter" for £3 just before the leadership election. Like 300k random commies and malcontents who actively despised the previous Labour leaders joined and voted for Corbyn. It was basically a takeover of the labour party by momentum. And yes, those trots are out of sync with both the general public and labour party supporters in general.

The problem with this argument is that 'labour supporters' is a pool of several million people while 'officially on the party roles' is only a few hundred thousand. These are similar to what, in the US, might be called 'stealth partisans': people who are very much hardcore partisans, but don't directly identify as such. I don't buy that they aren't REAL labour voters just because they weren't on the official roles.

UK has fucking weird party set-up that encourages this behavior in the first place (otherwise party membership for the two largest parties in the UK would be more than half a million people). You are arguing that the millions of people who are, in fact, labour partisans who decided to officially join the party to influence are somehow less worthy of a vote than you. And that's fucking bullshit. I'm not accepting that argument, no matter how much you make it: its the same as people in the American Republican Party who claim that if you don't hold their religious beliefs, you shouldn't be in the party. Its snobbery and elitism and nothing more.

Essentially the people who joined were not people who supported labour in the past, but saw an opportunity to take over the party by getting Corbyn (who was a very marginal figure on the extreme fringe of the party) elected. There have been various socialist parties over the years, all of which have been extremely unpopular with the electorate. In 1983 the election manifesto for labour was as left wing as Corbyn's. It's nickname in UK politics is "the longest suicide note in history".

Essentially a bunch of SWP and CPGB and AWL members joined up and agitated others to do so, with the aim of influencing the election and hijacking the party. Momentum, which is practically a party in its own right, did the same thing. They recently agitated for their members to sign up as associate members of Unite (a trade union) with the aim of influencing their election too, the goal to ensure a pro-Corbyn leader winning.

It's not snobbery to oppose entryism.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Militant_(Trotskyist_group)

Ps. you might want to avoid sounding so vehement/certain about a topic you're clearly not that familiar with. Makes you sound silly.

Offline Cromstar

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Re: June 8th; the day skynet comes online
« Reply #45 on: May 19, 2017, 12:03:42 PM »
The problem is that I've seen literally no evidence to support this theory. I've seen it thrown about a bit (as well as its meddling-Tories sibling), especially from anti-Corbyn people in Labour, but no proof that it actually happened.

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Re: June 8th; the day skynet comes online
« Reply #46 on: May 19, 2017, 03:04:55 PM »
The problem is that I've seen literally no evidence to support this theory. I've seen it thrown about a bit (as well as its meddling-Tories sibling), especially from anti-Corbyn people in Labour, but no proof that it actually happened.

Nobody is saying the tories did it.

What more evidence do you need, beyond the hundreds of thousands of people joining followed by a huge u-turn in all beliefs, policies and elected officials? I blame Miliband for lowering the standard for joining the party and making it one man one vote.

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Re: June 8th; the day skynet comes online
« Reply #47 on: May 28, 2017, 02:05:49 PM »

Offline Malice please

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Re: June 8th; the day skynet comes online
« Reply #48 on: May 31, 2017, 06:57:05 AM »
Theresa May is doing a good job of trying to clutch defeat from the jaws of victory. I'm assuming she will win with a similar majority to current, as polls always overstate labour support and labour wastes more votes in safe seats, plus turnout will be awfully low.
She will go on to fail to get a good deal on Brexit because frankly nobody is going to. She'll take the blame and resign leadership, someone embarrassingly bad will take over (BoJo?).
Labour will either split in two, handing conservatives the next general election despite getting a greater vote share between the two parties, or landslide if they don't split.

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Re: June 8th; the day skynet comes online
« Reply #49 on: May 31, 2017, 07:39:12 AM »
Somehow, despite overwhelming public and media support, May is managing to make Corbyn look like the better leader.

I still think the Tories are going to win but the potential for a big surprise is there.

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Re: June 8th; the day skynet comes online
« Reply #50 on: June 02, 2017, 12:52:28 PM »
This is never a good sign:
Quote
Theresa May: “The only poll that matters is the one that comes on polling day.”

Offline Talon Karrde

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Re: June 8th; the day skynet comes online
« Reply #51 on: June 02, 2017, 01:55:19 PM »
Somehow, despite overwhelming public and media support, May is managing to make Corbyn look like the better leader.

I still think the Tories are going to win but the potential for a big surprise is there.

He's somehow been legitimised. According to polling today it's con 45 lab 40... Big surprise potential there as you say! Here's hoping...
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Re: June 8th; the day skynet comes online
« Reply #52 on: June 02, 2017, 02:01:41 PM »
Somehow, despite overwhelming public and media support, May is managing to make Corbyn look like the better leader.

I still think the Tories are going to win but the potential for a big surprise is there.

He's somehow been legitimised. According to polling today it's con 45 lab 40... Big surprise potential there as you say! Here's hoping...

Would labour be able to form a coalition government with those kinds of numbers?

Offline Talon Karrde

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Re: June 8th; the day skynet comes online
« Reply #53 on: June 02, 2017, 02:05:41 PM »
Somehow, despite overwhelming public and media support, May is managing to make Corbyn look like the better leader.

I still think the Tories are going to win but the potential for a big surprise is there.

He's somehow been legitimised. According to polling today it's con 45 lab 40... Big surprise potential there as you say! Here's hoping...

Would labour be able to form a coalition government with those kinds of numbers?

No, almost definitely not. The lib dems are pretty much wiped out still and the SNP would backfire. But even then, the tories would be very close to a majority.

Offline Cromstar

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Re: June 8th; the day skynet comes online
« Reply #54 on: June 02, 2017, 05:04:19 PM »
Somehow, despite overwhelming public and media support, May is managing to make Corbyn look like the better leader.

I still think the Tories are going to win but the potential for a big surprise is there.

He's somehow been legitimised. According to polling today it's con 45 lab 40... Big surprise potential there as you say! Here's hoping...

Would labour be able to form a coalition government with those kinds of numbers?

It would basically have to be with SNP. That's been a non-starter in the past, but I wouldn't necessarily rule it out in the post-Brexit era if the Conservatives come in with less than half the seats. Maybe like 10-15% chance?

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Re: June 8th; the day skynet comes online
« Reply #55 on: June 02, 2017, 05:43:37 PM »
Somehow, despite overwhelming public and media support, May is managing to make Corbyn look like the better leader.

I still think the Tories are going to win but the potential for a big surprise is there.

He's somehow been legitimised. According to polling today it's con 45 lab 40... Big surprise potential there as you say! Here's hoping...

Would labour be able to form a coalition government with those kinds of numbers?

It would basically have to be with SNP. That's been a non-starter in the past, but I wouldn't necessarily rule it out in the post-Brexit era if the Conservatives come in with less than half the seats. Maybe like 10-15% chance?
I'm just an outsider looking in but 10% at the most. Along with fighting over the same political space the SNP wants another independence referendum and I don't see how Labour threads that needle even if the SNP was game. I mean what would SNP gain in a coalition government in any event except more autonomy  for Scotland which would be poison for Labour I have to assume? The Minister of Sports or the Minister of Harry Potter or whatever useless positions they throw to junior partners in coalition governments these days I guess. That's a tough sell.

Offline Cromstar

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Re: June 8th; the day skynet comes online
« Reply #56 on: June 02, 2017, 05:52:36 PM »
I mean, SNP has reasons to support Labour to effect a soft-Brexit, as opposed to the more hard-Brexit the Conservatives seem to be looking at so far. The issue really comes down to: do the two parties think they could avoid the political traps around the independence issue long enough to hold the coalition together to thwart the Tories? There's strong incentives to do so but I don't know if SNP would be willing to make a political tack for it or if Corbyn thinks he'd have enough room to work around the issue.

Offline Malice please

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Re: June 8th; the day skynet comes online
« Reply #57 on: June 03, 2017, 01:29:55 AM »
SNP's current manifesto essentially wants to set policy for whole of UK. Specifics being that anything conservatives have done or plan to do - do the opposite.
They want a coalition, probably just to repulse the english so much that they will clamour for Scotland to bugger off. Running stuff into the ground then blaming Westminster and saying they need independence is their one thing afterall.

Offline Talon Karrde

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Re: June 8th; the day skynet comes online
« Reply #58 on: June 03, 2017, 02:10:45 AM »
Yeah as I said it would backfire. They might prop up a minority labour government issue by issue but I don't see a true coalition there. Besides, at the current rate of polling we're talking about the tories being just a couple shy of a majority, so even if labour and the nationalists and lib dems joined forces, they'd still fall short.

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Re: June 8th; the day skynet comes online
« Reply #59 on: June 03, 2017, 02:39:23 AM »
Honestly, as much as I am enjoying the polling right now, don't look at it as anything other than the roughest of guides; remember it doesn't take FPTP into account at all. There are indicators that the increase in labour polling comes from already strong labour areas; along side untested polling models (changes since 15/16, accounting for shy tories, incredibly variable youth turnouts amoungst polling models, etc).

Expect a tory majority, bigger than current majority, but nowhere near as big as was predicted a month or two ago. They'll gain 30-50 seats. SNP lose 2, UKIP @0, Greens @1-2, Lib Dems @~10, Labour rest.

I'm ignoring wales because fuck wales also PC are polling like shit there